Reference scenario (Q939)
Subject, term, tag: Reference scenario
| Language | Label | Description | Also known as |
|---|---|---|---|
| English | Reference scenario |
Subject, term, tag: Reference scenario |
Statements
IPCC Glossary v1.5
1 reference
27 May 2026
Scenario used as starting or reference point for a comparison between two or more scenarios. Note 1: In many types of climate change research, reference scenarios reflect specific assumptions about patterns of socio-economic development and may represent futures that assume no climate policies or specified climate policies, for example those in place or planned at the time a study is carried out. Reference scenarios may also represent futures with limited or no climate impacts or adaptation, to serve as a point of comparison for futures with impacts and adaptation. These are also referred to as baseline scenarios in the literature. Note 2: Reference scenarios can also be climate policy or impact scenarios, which in that case are taken as a point of comparison to explore the implications of other features, for example, of delay, technological options, policy design and strategy or to explore the effects of additional impacts and adaptation beyond those represented in the reference scenario. Note 3: The term business as usual scenario has been used to describe a scenario that assumes no additional policies beyond those currently in place and that patterns of socio-economic development are consistent with recent trends. The term is now used less frequently than in the past. Note 4: In climate change attribution or impact attribution research reference scenarios may refer to counterfactual historical scenarios assuming no anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (climate change attribution) or no climate change (impact attribution). (English)
IPCC Glossary v1.5
1 reference
27 May 2026